Pupil Projections

by Coy Holcombe.  

We have talked before about how the state estimates how much money to send to school districts. So, how does the state get these estimates for future state funding? One avenue that the state uses is pupil projections provided by school districts. About 3 years ago, EISD had to submit projections to the state for the next three years on estimated ADA, special programs ADA, and special program FTEs (full-time equivalent). These estimates then became part of the estimates used by TEA to plan and allocate funds for the next three years.

Currently, TEA is requesting pupil projections for 08-09, 09-10, and 10-11 school years. These estimates have to be submitted by December 12, 2008. TEA has its own set of projections for EISD for these years. If we agree with the TEA projections, then no change is necessary. However, usually the TEA projections are much greater than the actual numbers for EISD. Only in a limited number of categories will the TEA projections actually reflect a reasonable approximation of enrollment for EISD.

So how does EISD project the numbers three years in advance? Since the submission of this data is not due until December 12, we will have over two full six weeks of actual enrollment data to use in our projections. Once we make the projections for the 08-09 school year, we can then estimate the projections for the 09-10 and the 10-11 school years.

If you have any questions regarding pupil projections or how EISD calculates future projections, please contact me at cholcombe@eustaceisd.net.

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